Seeing Beyond the Horizon
Deciphering the 'Weather' and 'Climate' of Global Economic Trends
In a world where rapid changes and unpredictability have become the norm, discerning between transient trends and underlying shifts is critical for strategic decision-making. During a recent interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, offered a valuable frame for assessing broader trends across various sectors.
“Now, particularly with the US and China, I differentiate between climate and weather. Right now, I think the weather is a bit sunnier. They are preparing for the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) meeting. We all hope that President Xi and President Biden will have a good meeting. So, the weather has improved. But I think the climate, the relationship between the United States and China, is not in such a happy place.”
Balakrishnan's metaphor, distinguishing the ephemeral 'weather' from the long-term 'climate', serves as an insightful tool to analyze and predict trends including in geopolitics, economics and business. This lens can help us to think beyond the headlines and consider the structural factors that will shape the future. Here are just a couple of issues where distinguishing climate and weather may be warranted.
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